Big Brother 24 Thoughts

[One]

Active players (rough order)
Paloma is probably playing the hardest right now, for better or worse
Pooch was very active yesterday. Generally favored around the house
Alyssa is riding with Paloma, but she might be better positioned. Paloma is playing a much more stressed game than she is.
Monte seems to getting along with people, many want to work with him, but Ameenah has already mentioned him as a target, and some of the girls are associating him with Taylor, and that could pose a problem
Kyle seems to be well positioned so far. One of the more social people in the house, game or not, and I haven't heard his name as a target with anyone
Jasmine just seems to be tagging along right now, especially with Paloma
Indy's position in the game seems up in the air, although she is part of the Girl Girl's alliance
Ameerah's position in the game is also up in the air. She seems to be buying into Paloma and Alyssa's game, but I'm not too sure

Less active players
Daniel has been somewhat distant as far as game talk so far, as the HOH. A lot of people are giving him space
Nicole seems to be respected around the house. Her and Daniel are active amongst each other but that's about it
Taylor has a very large target on her back right now and is completely oblivious to that
Terrance is well liked by all so far. Don't see anyone targeting him
Joseph is fairly well liked, but Pooch has a suspicion that he might rub people the wrong way.
Brittany is around, but I don't think anyone's formed much of an opinion on her. She's got somewhat of a target on her back, if for nothing else than because it's an easy target. She did manage to be in the room when the Girl Girls alliance was formed though
Turner didn't really make an impression until the Bumper Pool game, which he showed the other guys how to play
Michael isn't doing much so far. Casual conversation, but very little game talk with anyone

 

[One]

It'll be interesting to see how all of these wired personality types get around one another in the coming weeks, specifically Paloma, Pooch, and to a lesser extent Ameerah.

Last night Paloma went on this weird train of thought with person to person, going on about how she's hacked the game, and the check is going to her, and she'll invest in their businesses. Openly telling Daniel that everyone in the game comes to her, and she knows everything that's going on. It might be charming for some right now, but it could easily become an issue for her game later.

Monte is already skeptical of Pooch and his similar 1000 miles-a-minute talking and the uncertainty that goes with him. Ameerah, by comparison looks tame, but she's had plenty similar moments so far in the game.

The fact that many of the most active players right now aren't super familiar with the game, it'll also be interesting to see what happens if they get tripped up as Big Brother throws these unexpected twists at them.

 

[One]

The most interesting individual games as of right now (some for being unhinged, others for how they're developing)

In no particular order:
Paloma, Pooch, Ameerah, Turner, Kyle, Joseph, Michael

There's also Taylor but, save for a good twist, I'm at the point where I'm hoping she can come back into the real world where she won't have to deal with the nonsense going on in the house anymore.

Monte's game could also be interesting, but I'm not sure anymore about his level of awareness when it comes to strategy. There seems to be a ceiling on his gameplay. I can still see him getting far in the game, given his alliances, but strategy-wise I can see others moving him around the board, and personality-wise, there's not much there. Right now, what's more interesting with him is how he contributes to the games of one of the other people named. All that can change after comps though.

 

[One]

Ameerah, Terrance, and Jasmine are in the restroom area talking about the HOH competition coming up this week. Jasmine tells Ameerah that she doesn't think she should go for HOH, she's good.

Turner walks in and they switch the topic.

[Turner does a lot of this. I can't say if it was intentinoal here, but very subtly, he regularly finds his way into all areas of the house, interrupting gatherings, getting between people, standing in on conversations, etc]

 

[One]

If Ameerah does go on the block, with the votes being so tight, what are the chances that someone goes to her and says they'll save her in exchange for a final two/three?

Of course there's no guarantee that she'd actually commit to it, but that doesn't mean that the person offering wouldn't believe it.

 

[One]

Here's another crazy idea

As likely as it seems that Ameerah is getting evicted today, you can't help but feel like there's still some Murphy's Law lingering around here.

I can't completely put it past someone (e.g., Joseph or Kyle) to throw their vote and try to pin it on someone else in The Leftovers and then realign with Ameerah and company.

It's a long-shot, especially since they've already told the others in The Leftovers who else they've been aligned with, and I highly doubt it happens, but it's still not impossible.

Especially if someone thinks they'd be able to gain enough favor, and be off the radar long enough while the girls have the numbers (including the defector) to do what they want

 

[One]

It's telling that the three people who were playing the hardest day one, and doing the most, left back to back to back, in the order of their day-one activity level.

Paloma
Pooch
Ameerah

New personalities are going to rise to the top and become more noticeable now, and we'll see how the house reacts to that.

 

[One]

So the plan now is to not use the veto (unless there's major pushback to use it) and then vote out Alyssa

The logic is this:

There are six teams

Alyssa/Indy
Brittany/Michael
Daniel/Kyle
Jasmine/Turner
Joseph/Monte/Terrance
Nicole/Taylor

If Nicole gets voted out, that leaves Taylor to choose a new team to join

If she joins Alyssa/Indy, Daniel/Kyle, Jasmine/Turner, or Joseph/Monte/Terrance, she's insulated again, but The Leftovers are still vulnerable to a Brittany/Michael backdoor, and that would be the only one

If she chooses Brittany/Michael, then The Leftovers are vulnerable to a backdoor using that group, and again that would be the only one

If she chooses Joseph/Monte/Terrance, then she would be insulated by Terrance...

Unless... she was forced to break the trio up, and take one of them to form a duo with, and leave the other two as a duo themselves

If that's the case, no matter what she chooses, she introduces a new Leftovers-only duo. If she chooses Terrance, then Monte/Joseph are a Leftovers duo, and if she chooses either Monte or Joseph, then she and the one she chooses are a Leftovers duo.

Which would mean that there are two Leftovers duos, i.e. vulnerabilities. Michael/Brittany, and whichever Leftovers from the broken up trio are paired up after Taylor makes her choice

This possibility, of ending up with two vulnerable Leftovers pairs, is what they're trying to protect themselves against

So their plan is to vote out Alyssa, leaving Indy to make a choice

If Indy chooses Daniel/Kyle, Jasmine/Turner, Nicole/Taylor, Joseph/Monte/Terrance (without breaking up the trio) those groups are now further insulated, but still leaves Brittany/Michael exposed.

That's still just one vulnerable group.

The worst case scenario would be if Indy is forced to break up the three person group of Joseph/Monte/Terrance and chooses Terrance. That would create the same situation as before, where The Leftovers now have two Leftovers-only duos exposed.

So if they're forced to break up the trio, it's a guarantee that they create a new vulnerable duo if Taylor is choosing, and there's possibility that they create a new vulnerable duo if Indy is choosing, and that's if she chooses Terrance. Then Monte/Joseph and Michael/Brittany would both be vulnerable.

The best case scenario with Indy staying would be if she's not forced to break up the trio and she chooses to join Michael/Brittany. In that case, all of the Leftovers would have insulation.

Michael/Brittany would have Indy
Kyle would have Daniel
Turner would have Jasmine
Joseph/Monte would have Terrance
Taylor would have Nicole

And no matter who wins HOH next week, they'd be able to vote out the non-Leftovers member, and further cement their numbers

---

To me, there's still something iffy about keeping the two biggest comp threats on the other side, only because there's still the possibility that in the end Michael and Brittany remain vulnerable.

At that point, you not only have two of their best competitors able to win HOH, you also have two of their best competitors able to play for the veto, and a higher likelihood that they'll be selected for it.

It also complicates things from a social standpoint, after everyone's made promises (which they shouldn't have) about the veto being used, or wanting it to be used. You can explain that away for the time being, but that kind of seed grows in a game like this, especially with players like Indy who will definitely be pushed to listen to whatever plan Daniel presents to her.

If it's all mostly the same, in my opinion, it makes sense to take a chunk out of the competitive threat, knowing that even if they win and take a piece out of your side next week, they won't be able to compete for HOH the following week, and the remaining players on that side (Jasmine, Alyssa, Indy) are going up against the full, remaining team from the Leftovers (Monte, Joseph, Taylor, Kyle, Michael, Turner), assuming they kept Michael (which they'd have the votes to do)

It seems like a blunder from a competitive standpoint to close a hole that there's no guarantee will be closed anyway.

Then you also have to take into account the impact that it'll have on Kyle. I don't think there will be much, but the opportunity is there for him to feel bulldozed, especially after he already made promises on the assumption that a joint plan was already set. Even if it has no effect in the short term, this is the kind of thing that creates seeds of resentment in this game. (One extra thing that could disincentivize Kyle from flipping is that being teamed up with Daniel would automatically make them a two person Non-Leftovers duo, which makes them an easy target)

And then you have to consider that Festie Besties will be over eventually. By then, the numbers should be overwhelming, but all of a sudden that insulation is gone and if Nicole or Daniel get HOH, one of the Leftovers will probably be backdoored anyway.

Where it does make sense is that in the near term, if they do get Indy to go where they want her to go, even if you have Nicole and Daniel both in the house next week, there's nothing they can do, unless they win this week, remove a shield, and then win again next week and target that same group then.

It comes down to guaranteeing that you take out a significant comp threat for the rest of the game, and significantly increasing your odds at winning power for the alliance weeks down the line vs. taking a chance (a good chance, to be fair) on guaranteeing the insulation of the entire team for the duration of the twist, and then figuring out the rest later, assuming that they can get those comp threats out later, or re-align in such a way that benefits their game anyway. And deal with the social ramifications of either choice.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out though.

One thing to look for is that Monte said this might regain some trust from Nicole and via proxy from Daniel, but earlier in the day, Daniel said no matter what angle Monte tried to play, he's on to him and he's coming for him. So it'll be interesting to see how this plays out because surely, Daniel will recognize that by keeping nominations the same, he'll be guaranteed to lose a number, but he'll then have to know what to tell Indy, and then him and Nicole will have capitalize in the upcoming competitions.

 

[One]

How it could play out is that Monte tells Nicole that he's having doubts about her having the votes (which he intends to do)

Kyle presents himself to Daniel as if he believes it, and then, rather than taking the chance on putting Nicole up with doubts about her having the vote, he lets Daniel "convince" him that Alyssa can stay up and she'll have the votes to stay against Indy, and then Alyssa gets voted out.

Then, as the others suggested, he blames everything on Daniel

 

[One]

If they pull this off, next week is a free week (barring any new twists), and they basically prolong the evictions of Nicole and Daniel, but it's still the same song and dance.

The major downside is that one of them makes jury, but if they're going to be true to what they've said about voting on gameplay, that would be better than Alyssa who's more likely to vote based on someone else's influence, and also equally likely to be bitter as Nicole or Daniel.

That's if it all goes according to plan.

 

[One]

There's a strong possibility that Kyle's game gets exposed this week one way or another

If Turner puts up Terrance and Alyssa,, Terrance and probably Alyssa both rat out Kyle and the events from last week, just like Terrance did with Joseph

If Turner puts up Brittany and Taylor like Kyle suggested this morning, Michael and Brittany have the ammunition to go at Kyle with if necessary.

There's also a chance that Michael/Brittany throw Monte/Taylor under the bus to try to buy themselves another week. So it's not a guarantee, but it looks like Kyle's game is going to be on shaky ground this week

 

[One]

Something I hadn't thought of, but that just came up in the conversation between Terrance and Monte in the car room

If Turner puts up both Taylor and Brittany, there's a very real possibility that one of them get House Guest's choice and chooses Michael to play anyway, when the plan was to avoid the situation where Michael gets to play in the veto in the first place.

When you're backdooring someone, ideally you put up two people who aren't aligned with that person, who wouldn't choose them with House Guest's choice

 

[One]

If Michael wins the veto, this move can go horribly wrong for Kyle/Turner

They'd have to show their cards by putting Monte up as the replacement, which would absolutely show Monte that he's at the bottom of their alliance. If they don't put up Monte, then the combination of Monte/Michael/Brittany/Taylor who aren't on the block will have the three votes needed to take out whoever else Turner puts up

At that point they'd have to take out Monte, leaving Michael/Taylor/Brittany (because Monte would be the stronger player on the block, and Kyle would definitely suspect that he'd team up with Michael and whoever Michael pulled down [likely Brittany]). And now Kyle and Turner would have Michael (and Taylor) gunning for them specifically. Next week, Turner can't play in the HOH comp, so it'd basically be Kyle vs. Michael and Taylor, with Brittany, Terrance, and Alyssa as the unlikely winners on the periphery.

Once that shot is taken against Kyle/Turner (it's an even number of votes [4] to evict next week, and a tie, with two votes from Taylor and Brittany, would go to Michael if he's HOH), then Michael is much more likely to be able to veto his way through against a remaining group of [Kyle or Turner], Taylor, Terrance, Brittany, and Alyssa. And there's also a chance that Taylor wins the following HOH comp, to take another shot.

This is *if* Michael gets selected and wins the veto though.

 

[One]

If Monte were to win the veto, I do wonder what the chances are that he keeps noms the same to keep Michael in the game at this point, and give him the best probability of an ally winning HOH next week

 

[One]

And Michael wins the Power of Veto

 

[One]

What are the chances that after the veto ceremony and replacements, Turner talks to Brittany and Alyssa, they flip the vote, and then target Monte the following week, when he can't play for HOH. Locking in a potential Turner, Alyssa, and Brittany final three. The only thing I can see preventing that is the prospect of Monte winning the veto, and then going into the final three HOH, and not selecting Turner if he wins.